British Pound Fails To Gain Traction, Eyes 1.6150

British Pound Fails To Gain Traction, Eyes 1.6150

By: Simon Furman | Where To Trade | On:1-10-2014 01:28
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Key Highlights

  • British pound traded lower against the US dollar intraday despite better than expected GDP figures.
  • Euro managed to close back above the 1.2600 level, but remains at risk for a new low below the 1.2570 level.
  • Australian dollar crashed during the Asian session, as the Australian retail sales data published suggest that the retail sector is expected to grow by 0.1%, compared to 0.4% expected.
  • NZDUSD pair was also seen struggling as the Asian currencies took a hit and failed to recover ground.

GBPUSD

The British pound struggled against the US dollar recently, as mentioned above. There was a channel formed on the hourly chart of the GBPUSD pair, which was broken recently. This break ignited a sharp downside reaction in the pair, as it fell towards the 1.6165 level. It corrected higher later, but failed right around the 50% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.6286 high to 1.6165 low. So, we might consider this as a completion of a correction, which might take the pair lower again in the near term. There is a risk that the pair might break the recent low of 1.6165 and trade towards the 1.6120 support area. The hourly RSI has also breached the 50 mark, which adds value to the bearish view.

Intraday Support Level – 1.6165

Intraday Resistance Level – 1.6210

  • Overall, as long as the pair stays below the 1.6210 level more losses are feasible.
  • A break below the 1.6165 low might encourage the British pound sellers to take it lower.

On the other hand, if the pair bounces from the current or a bit lower levels, then it would need a break above the 1.6210 level for more upside moving ahead.

USDCHF

There was no stopping the US dollar, as it continued to rise against the currencies including the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. There is a solid trend on the hourly chart of the USDCHF pair as can be seen in the chart attached. There is a bullish trend line formed, which might continue to act as a hurdle for the US dollar sellers. Yesterday, the pair fell from the intraday high of 0.9593, but the US dollar buyers emerged right around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last leg from the 0.9496 low to 0.9593 high. However, there is a chance that the USDCHF pair might spike lower one more time towards the highlighted trend line. A break below the 0.9520-00 area would be difficult considering the fact that the market sentiment still favors the US dollar.

Intraday Support Level – 0.9530

Intraday Resistance Level – 0.9593

  • Buying dips around the highlighted trend line might not be a bad idea in the short term.
  • Chasing strength is not advisable, as the pair is already trading around the elevated levels.

USDCHF Chart

If the pair trades higher and manages to break the last high of 0.9593, then a move above the 0.9600 is possible. The next level of interest would be around the 0.9620 level.

Simon Furman

Simon Furman

Think Global - Act Local

Simon Furman is one of the best financial analyst with 27 years of trading experience

Yen Looks Set For More Losses

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By: Oliver Miller | Where To Trade | On:27-04-2015 10:50

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