UK Nationwide Housing Prices highlighting the value of the houses prices in UK and indicate current movements in the housing market posted an increase of 1% in April, compared to the preceding month.
US dollar continued to weaken against a few currencies and managed to recover some ground against currencies like the Euro and the British Pound
Euro continued to decline against the US dollar as sellers remain in control and even better than expected Euro Zone ZEW Economic sentiment failed to cause an upside reaction in EURUSD.
Euro dived recently, but managed to gain buyers around 1.0900, which represents an important support area and suggests that the EURUSD pair can continue trading higher.
US dollar failed to hold ground especially against the Euro, as the latter one managed to climb higher above the 1.0960 level and looks set for a break above 1.10.
Kiwi dollar managed to gain ground against the US dollar and on the other hand, the Aussie dollar was seen struggling in the near term.
Euro traded lower earlier against the US dollar, but after the German employment report it managed to gain traction and traded back higher.
US dollar moved lower after the disappointing retail sales report released during the NY session.
Euro traded lower against the US dollar during the London session despite positive releases in the Euro zone.
Euro moves higher against the US dollar, but looks like struggling around the 1.1440 level.
British pound surged higher against the US dollar, as the UK services PMI came above the forecast.
Fed is expected to keep the interest rates unchanged, but all eyes would be on policy statement
US dollar moved higher against many major currencies especially against the Swiss Franc.
US nonfarm payrolls released by the US Department of Labor came above the forecast with a reading of 252K.
Euro had no reason to move higher against the US dollar and moved lower to break the 1.1800 level to set a new low for the week.
Earlier during the NY session the Canadian Gross Domestic Product Annualized was released by the Statistics Canada. The market was expecting the Canadian GDP to remain flat at 0%, as in the case of the previous month.
The US GDP growth figures surprised the markets by a 0.5% deviation from the expected. In the third quarter this year, The US economy expanded by 3.5%. This represents a 1.1 fall from the growth registered in the previous Q2 and a surprise of 0.5% from the widely expected 3% growth.
Earlier during the NY session the US Gross Domestic Product Annualized was released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The market was expecting the US GDP to be around 3.0%, down from the previous reading of 4.0%.
Yesterday during the New York open the US Federal Reserve announced the end of the QE3 program. This announcement had been widely anticipated by the majority of economic analysts and we saw an immediate reaction in the USD pairs. We have witnessed the USD strengthen across the board on all the major pairs.
In the markets, we have seen the sentiment for the dollar take a dive despite the bullish news coming from the US. Yesterday, the EURUSD experienced a 600 points gain which has now found rejection at the 1.267 level.
Earlier during the NY session, the US durable goods orders report was released by the US Census Bureau. The market was expecting the US durable goods orders to register a rise of 0.5% in September 2014
Earlier during the NY session, the US pending home sales data was released by the National Association of Realtors. The market was expecting the US new pending sales to register a rise of 0.5% in September 2014.
Today the market is waiting for the ECB to announce the amount of the covered bind purchases it bought last week
The US BLS report on consumer price index showed that the all items price index for September 2014 experienced a 1.7% increase. This increase matches the previous months reading at the same figure.
There were a lot of important economic releases lined up during the London session. The most important ones include Euro area manufacturing and services PMI, German manufacturing and services PMI and UK retail sales data
Earlier during the NY session, the US consumer price index was released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The market was expecting the US consumer price index to increase by 1.6% in September 2014
The Euro dropped against the dollar during the overnight trading session, rescinding all of its gains from Monday, due to reports stating the European Central Bank will start its corporate bond buying program as soon as December.
From the Weekly chart, we can see that the CADJPY has been moving sideways since it hit resistance at 101.08 on May of this year. We have been caught in a 900 pip range with the lower bound being at 91.00.and the upper bound at the 99.00 level.
In the past two weeks, we have been experiencing a bullish of reversal of the EURUSD pair from its bearish fall. The reversal has led the market commentator to speculate that the dollar has been over bought
Gold continued its uptrend overnight and was able to break above the all-important resistance of $1242. The precious metal was significantly higher in the Asian trading session o due to higher than expected Chinese growth numbers which is seen as a huge overhang for global growth growing forward.
Earlier during the NY session, the US Existing Home Sales was released by the National Association of Realtors. The market was expecting the US Existing Home Sales to increase by 1% in September 2014, compared with the last month.
During the Asian session today, all eyes were on china as the markets eagerly awaited release of the quarterly economic performance for 2014.
Earlier during the NY session, the Canadian wholesale sales report was published by the Statistics Canada. The market was expecting the Canadian wholesale sales to decline by 0.2% in August 2014,
On Wednesday, the markets are eagerly waiting to get the official CPI figures from the US. During a recovery, as we are in now, a moderately increasing CPI shows that there is healthy economic activity in the real economy
Earlier during the NY session, the Canadian consumer price index was released by the Statistics Canada. The market was expecting no change in the inflation this time around, but the outcome was better than expected.
In the third quarter of 2014, there was a significant increase in the net long positions of the dollar in the futures market this was a response to the strong reports on the economy that were being released
About an hour ago, the Canadian manufacturing sales data was released by the Statistics Canada. The market as expecting the Canadian manufacturing sales to register a decline of 1.6% in August 2014,
About an hour ago, the US retail sales data was released by the US Census Bureau. The market was already expecting a decline of 0.1% in September 2014, compared to the last month’s gain of 0.6%. However, the outcome was even more disappointing as the US retail sales decreased by 0.3%. Moreover, the core retail sales data was also disappointing, as it declined by 0.2%.
The major economies have been in the untested waters of long periods of ultra-low interest since the 200- 2009 crash. The USD dollar had been the major looser in this situation getting weaker relative to the other major currencies.
Earlier during the London session, the UK consumer price index was released by the National Statistics. The market was expecting the UK consumer price index to register an increase of 0.2% in September 2014,
Earlier during the London session, the German wholesale price Index was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland. The market was expecting the German wholesale price Index to register an increase of 0.1% in September 2014, compared to the last time decline of 0.2%. The outcome was as expected, as the index slightly rose by 0.1%.
In a speech yesterday (9th of October 2014) at the Brookings Institution in Washington, Draghi gave a speech outlining his strategy for getting the Eurozone out of the current crisis and stalled growth. Though evident, the ECB president drew parallels between the US crisis during the Roosevelt administration and the current Euro crisis.
Earlier during the start of the NY session, the Canadian employment change, participation rate and the unemployment rate data were released by the Statistics Canada.
Since September of 2011 the Swiss National Bank has maintained a 1.200 floor of the Swiss Franc against the EUR. The bank expressed its view that the Swiss franc was grossly overvalued and its fears that the high valuation was indeed a serious risk to the Swiss economy because of the deflationary pressures it was causing. Lowering the Francs valuation was on its list of primary concerns.
Earlier during the start of the NY session, the US initial jobless claims were released by the US Department of Labor. The market was expecting the advance figure for seasonally adjusted US initial jobless claims to rise from 287K to 294K in the week ending October 4. However, the outcome was very positive, as the jobless claims declined from the previously revised reading of 288K to 287K. So, there was no rise in the US jobless claims. The advance seasonally adjusted US continuing jobless claims for the week ending September 27 also declined from 2.402M to 2.381M. This was on the positive side, and the US dollar was also seen trading higher after the release.
About an hour ago, the Housing Starts was released by the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation. The market was expecting the trend measure of housing starts in Canada to be around 196.1K units in September compared to 191,095 in August. However, the outcome was a bit better, as the Canadian Housing starts measure stood at 197.3K. The outcome was mostly in line with the expectation, and that is the reason why the Canadian dollar was broadly unchanged after the release.
The kiwi has been showing marked weakness in the past quarter. The AUDNZD has appreciated over 600 pips since July of this year this represents a dramatic strengthening of the Australian dollar against the Kiwi. It is anticipated to have further gains in the coming months. The NZDUSD has plunged 1000 pips since July also representing a wakening kiwi against the dollar. The GBPNZD has also revealed remarkable weakness in the kiwi rising over 1500 pips.
After yet another flat day of declines for the precious metal, Gold witnessed some buying interest in the overnight session. The buying interest has continued to be seen in the Asian trading session on the back of holiday demand and the re-opening of the Chinese markets. China, along with India are the largest consumers for the precious metal. The IMF downgrading global growth prospects regarded as a huge positive, as many believe that the equity trade might get unwound and traders might look at building on the safe haven trade.
The US Economic Optimism Index was released by the Investor's Business Daily (IBD) TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP). The market was expecting it to rise from 45.2 to 46.3. However, the Economic Optimism Index stayed at 45.2 in October 2014. This is about 0.1 points above its 12-month average of 45.1. So, the reading was not bad considering the average. However, the reading is still below the 50 mark, which means pessimism. According to the report published IBD/TIPP conducted the national poll of 889 adults from September 27 to October 3. The US dollar was seen trading lower after the release, and the worst performing pair was USDJPY.
The Sterling has shown some weakness against the USD in the recent past, this can be attributed to the strengthening of the US economy and the recent speculation about the Scottish vote. Overall however, the GBPUSD has failed to break below the 1.5950 level and has met very strong buying pressures near this psychological level. It remains that without any major fundamental news, we are unlikely to slide below his level.
The DAX had a very volatile session once again yesterday following on from a busy previous week. After opening higher in the morning session it was catching up on the price action from Friday. The DAX was unable to hold onto gains and closed near the lows of the day. The DAX opened a percent higher in the morning but post the Factory order data which largely disappointed the street saw resumption of selling pressure which dragged the index lower. The Factory orders came in at 5.7 percent lower than those reported it August, the lowest level seen since January 2009.
There was an important economic release lined up during the New York session in Canada. The Canadian Ivey PMI was released by the Richard Ivey School of Business. The market was expecting an increase from 50.9 to 53.0 in by the end of September 2014. However, the outcome was very positive, as the Canadian PMI rose to 58.6. This was way above the last reading of 50.9. The report added that the Employment Index was 53.0, the Inventories Index was 60.0, the Supplier Deliveries Index was 42.7 and the Prices Index was 71.6 for September 2014.
On Tuesday the RBA will announce its cash rate decision. The cash rate in Australia is currently at 2.5% and has been unchanged since August of 2013. The cash rate is an important determinant of the exchange rate in spot foreign exchange market and futures. RBA uses the interest rate to implement its monetary policy. Since the third quarter of 2013, the RBA has maintained an accommodative monetary policy meant to stimulate growth and maintain a low inflation within the medium term targets.
Gold tumbled to 4-year lows in Fridays’ trading session. Traders and investors in Asia are continuing to witness the downward pressure on the precious metal as the dollar continues its uptrend against all major currencies, considered bearish for gold. Gold fell below the all-important psychological level of $1200 breaking the important support zone near the $1207. The Department of Labour reported that the US economy added 248,000 jobs in the month of September, this came in way higher than the consensus estimate of 215,000 jobs.
There was no relief for the British pound buyers, as it continued to decline against the US dollar and the Euro. One of the main reasons for the decline is the recent economic data and the market sentiment. The market sentiment is playing a major role in the weakness, which has increased the pressure on the GBPUSD pair.
The USDCAD has been on has been on a long term uptrend since August of 2009. This uptrend persisted even in the face of a weak US economy and a loose monetary stance by the US FED. A weak Canadian dollar has seen the pair move from the lows of 0.9400 in 2011 to levels above 1.1100 in 2014.
The US Initial Jobless Claims was released by the US Department of Labor about an hour ago. The market was expecting an increase of 4000 this time around. However, the outcome was better than expected, as the US Initial Jobless Claims fell by 8K in the week ending September 27 on the seasonally adjusted basis. There was a revision in the previous reading as well, as the US Initial Jobless Claims for the last week was revised up from 293K to 295K.
After weaker than expected ISM manufacturing reading was released on Wednesday, the dollar corrected to 85.5013 in the dollar index to and 108.55 against the Yen. ISM Manufacturing for September was reported at 56.6 against an expectation of 58.5. This represents a 0.8% drop from the report released in august at 59%. This August ISM manufacturing of 59 was the peak for the seven preceding quarters.
Gold prices were moderately higher in the Asian morning today but on low volumes. This is on the back of holidays in Hong Kong, China and India. Gold had a relatively flat to positive session overnight post economic data from the US led traders to sell the dollar and take some profits off the table. There was an equally large sell off witnessed in equities overnight which led many to position themselves in the relatively risk off trade in gold.
The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index was released about an hour ago. The market was expecting it to fall from 59.0 to 58.5. However, the report mentioned that the US ISM manufacturing PMI fell from 59.0 to 56.6 in September 2014, which means 2.4 points lower than August 2014 reading. However, this reading is well above the neutral reading and indicates expansion
Expectations for a EURUSD correction are mounting as the pair falls to fresh lows each day. The pair, at 1.26 levels is at its lowest of the proceeding five quarters. A bullish dollar and softer economic data has seen the bears dominate this pair for the whole of the third quarter of 2014. There has not been any major retracement for the pair since July.
Gold remained broadly under pressure in the early morning session today as investors kept a close eye on the dollar, which remained flat but continued to have a bullish bias. Gold witnessed a selloff in the overnight session on the back of weak global cues and a stronger dollar. Gold had the worst quarter since 2008, which is a huge cause of concern for bulls. The price action over the quarter is indicative of the waning interest in the precious metals basket.
The Kiwi has shed off over a thousand pips since its 0.882 peak in July to the lows of 0.776 at yesterdays close when paired against the US dollar. Last week, the NZDJPY fell over 2800 pips to close the week at 85.9 from the highs of 88.8. The Kiwi has been selling across the board since the September quarterly GDP report was released.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index was released by the MNI Deutche Börse Group about an hour ago. The market was expecting it to decline from 64.3 to 62.0. However, the outcome missed the expectation, as the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index registered a decline of around 4 points and currently stands at 60.5. The US dollar was seen losing some ground after the release, as the EURUSD pair managed to climb more than 30 pips. The GBPUSD pair also managed to gain traction and traded back above the 1.6200 level.
Gold prices were lower in early morning trade in Asia on back of the unrest in Hong Kong. Traders and investors are closely watching out for manufacturing data coming out of China to understand the underlying strength of the worlds’ second largest economy. Gold prices could not sustain at higher levels in trade last night as the dollar recovered from the early morning weakness.
As we come to the close of the third quarter of 2014, the dollar has been strengthening against the Euro. The market ignored the flat Durable Goods Orders at 57.9 that had not changed since the previous month and continued on its bullish streak despite missing the expected figure of 58.
The US personal spending was released at the start of the NY session by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce. The forecast was slated for a 0.4% increase in August 2014, compared to the last time decline of 0.1%.
The US durable goods orders data was released by the US Census Bureau at the start of the NY session. The forecast was slated for a decline of 18% in August 2014, compared to the preceding month.
The Canadian retail sales figures were released by the Statistics Canada about an hour ago. The market was expecting the Canadian retail sales to register a gain of 0.5% in July, 2014, compared to the last month’s gain of 1.2%. The outcome was not as expected
The Euro lost most of its gains yesterday’s trading session on the back of comments from the European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi who indicated that the Eurozone recovery was losing steam. In remarks to the European parliament the ECB chief reiterated that the ECB would take all necessary actions to kick start a flagging European economy. The euro found some support post the US existing sales data which showed that the housing sector, in the US wasn’t completely out of the woods.
The US Existing Home Sales figures were released by the National Association of Realtors about an hour ago. The market was expecting the US existing home sales to register a change of +1%. However, the outcome was disappointing, as it registered a decrease of 1.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.05 million. This is the first decrease in the past five months, according to the report published.
Earlier during the NY session, the US initial jobless claims figure was released by the US Department of Labo
About an hour ago, the US consumer price index was released by the US Bureau of Labor statistics. The market was expecting the US CPI to remain flat in August 2014, compared to the same month of this year. However, the report mentioned that there was a decrease of 0.2% in the CPI in August 2014. When we consider the year-over-year change, then the US CPI rose by 1.7%, which is 0.2% less than the market expected and down from the previous reading of 2.0%. These figures were seasonally adjusted, and the most important part is that this was the first decrease in the CPI since April 2013.
About an hour ago, the US Producer Price Index was released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor. A few analysts were expecting no change in the US PPI in August 2014 compared to the previous month of the same year, and a few were expecting a 0.1% gain
About an hour ago, the NY Empire State Manufacturing index was released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The market was expecting a small rise from 14.7 to 16.0
The DAX had a very weak session on Friday closing at the day’s low which is a very bearish signal. The German index had been in a very strong uptrend over the last few weeks’ right from the time it made an intraday low at 8092 but is currently facing resistance at the upper end of the trading range. The selling pressure witnessed in Friday’s trading session was on the back of above average volumes which is a bearish indicator.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares gain near its 20-Day EMA which stands at $99.35 ahead of event this evening as the market expected for big announcement. Going forward the stock has strong support near $95, a level from where it has bounced twice in the past. Any big announcement will take the stock above $103.
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