GBPUSD Broadly Unchanged Post UK CPI

GBPUSD Broadly Unchanged Post UK CPI

By: Ben Myers | Where To Trade | On:17-02-2015 15:05
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Key Highlights

  • Aussie dollar moved higher against the US dollar after the RBA meeting minutes were released.

  • RBA was dovish as usual, but the Aussie dollar buyers unfazed by the outcome.

  • AUDUSD traded higher and tested the 0.7800-10 resistance area earlier today.

  • In China, the MNI China Business Sentiment Indicator, which tracks and predicts Chinese economic conditions released and came in at 52.8 in January 2015.

  • Italian Trade Balance released by the National Institute of Statistics registered a trade surplus of €5.756B in December 2014, compared to the last revised reading of €3.539B.

  • UK Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics registered a decline of 0.9% in January 2015, compared to the preceding month whereas the forecast was of -0.8%.

  • UK Producer Price Index Output was also released, which registered a decline of 0.5% in January 2015, compared to the preceding month whereas the forecast was of -0.3%.

  • UK Retail Price Index fell by 0.8% in January, compared to the last increase of 0.2%.

RBA Meeting Minutes

In Australia the RBA meeting minutes were released, which acted as a catalyst for the AUDUSD pair in the short term. There was no surprise in the minutes, as the RBA kept their dovish stance and reiterated the need of a rate cut moving ahead. The central bank mentioned that the Aussie dollar has more room towards the downside, which might help the economy.

Regarding, the consumer price index they mentioned that it declined in year-ended terms mainly because of the fall in fuel prices in the December quarter. Moreover, the Australian GDP would remain below trend over the course of this year, as mentioned in the meeting minutes. It might gradually pick up in 2016, which is a bit later than expected.

UK Consumer Price Index

In the UK, there was an important release lined up, as the Consumer Price Index was released by the National Statistics. The market was expecting it to decline by 0.8% in January 2015, compared to the preceding month. However, the outcome was on the lower side, as the UK CPI fell by 0.9%. In terms of the yearly change, the UK CPI increased by 0.3%, which was in line with the forecast, but down from the last gain of 0.5%.

Moreover, the UK Producer Price Index Output was released, which was also on the lower side. The market was expecting it to decline by 0.3% in January 2015, compared to the preceding month. However, the UK PPI output fell by 0.5%. In terms of the yearly change, the UK PPI output decreased by 1.8%, which was more than the forecast of 1.4%.

Technical Outlook – British Pound

The British pound fell initially after the release against the US dollar, but later managed to gain ground. There is a major resistance in GBPUSD around the 1.5400 area, which protected the upside in the pair on many occasions. On the downside, the 1.5340 level can be seen as a support in the near term.

Ben Myers

Ben Myers

Success = few pips, thousand times

Ben Myers is one of the most respected and trusted names in the financial trading industry. Following a long and successful career with HSBC, Bank of Ireland and running his own investment firm

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