New Zealand Dollar Might Gain Moving Ahead

New Zealand Dollar Might Gain Moving Ahead

By: Simon Furman | Where To Trade | On:17-09-2014 06:15
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New Zealand Dollar Might Gain Moving Ahead

Key Highlights

  • New Zealand dollar jumped higher against the US dollar yesterday, and it looks like that the Euro might also be heading lower against the New Zealand dollar.
  • New Zealand current account data released recently missed the expectations, but it is unlikely to affect in the near term.
  • GBPUSD trading higher ahead of a few important economic releases, including the employment data.

EURNZD

There is an important sliding channel formed on the hourly chart of the EURNZD pair, which might act as a catalyst for the pair in the short term. It looks like the pair is in the fourth wave from the 1.5934 high, and might be completing it around the channel resistance trend line for one last low in the current cycle. So, the 1.5850 can be seen as an immediate resistance around the channel upper trend line. The only fact that favors the Euro bulls as of writing is that the pair has closed above the 100 hourly moving average. If the pair beaks the channel and trades higher, then a move towards the last high of 1.5934 would be on the cards.

Intraday Support Level – 1.5780

Intraday Resistance Level – 1.5850

  • Overall, the bias can be considered as bearish, as there is a chance of a one final spike lower towards the 200 hourly moving average.
  • A break below the 100 hourly moving average might give a reason to sellers to take the pair lower.

If the pair breaks the 100 hourly moving average, then it could move towards the channel support trend line, which also coincides with the 61.8% fib retracement level of the move lower from the 1.5629 low to 1.5934 high. A break below the same could ignite a run towards the 200 hourly moving average.  

GBPUSD

The British pound spiked higher against the US dollar yesterday, but buyers failed to close the open gap again. The GBPUSD pair stopped right around a critical bearish trend line formed via connecting all major recent swing highs. However, the best part is that the pair has closed above both the important moving averages on the hourly chart – 100 and 200. Moreover, the hourly RSI is also above the 50 mark. Currently, the pair is trading around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the last leg from the 1.6052 low to the recent 1.6310 high. However, the most important support can be seen around the 38.2% fib retracement level, which also coincides with the 200 hourly moving average.

Intraday Support Level – 1.6210

Intraday Resistance Level – 1.6315

  • Overall, the bias remains bullish intraday, as long as the pair manages to hold the 200 hourly moving average.
  • A break below the 1.6210 level might negate the bullish view in the short term.

On the upside, initial resistance is around the 1.6310 level, which is a previous high and a trend line confluence area. A break and close above the same might take the pair towards the 1.6350 level, followed by 1.6400 handle in the near term.

Simon Furman

Simon Furman

Think Global - Act Local

Simon Furman is one of the best financial analyst with 27 years of trading experience

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