The Big Picture ? AUDUSD and GOLD

The Big Picture ? AUDUSD and GOLD

By: Ben Myers | Where To Trade | On:19-02-2015 15:24
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Key Highlights

  • Downtrend in the AUDUSD pair might not have finished as there is a major resistance on the way up for the pair which is likely to act as a pivot area.

  • In New Zealand, the Producer Price Index Input released by the Statistics New Zealand registered a reading of -0.4% whereas the market was expecting a decline of 0.2%.

  • New Zealand Producer Price Index Output was also released, which came in at -0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2014, compared to the last time decline of 1.1%.

  • Japanese Securities investment, released by Ministry of Finance registered a reading of ¥435.2B, compared to the last reading of ¥199.5B.

  • Japanese Foreign investment in Japan stocks was also released, which came in at ¥113.9B, compared to the previous reading of ¥-477.1B.

  • Japanese Merchandise Trade Balance Total released by the Ministry of Finance registered a trade deficit of ¥-1,177.5B in January 2015, compared to the forecast of ¥-1,691.0B.

  • Japanese Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance registered a trade deficit of ¥-406.124B in January 2015, compared to the forecast of ¥-712.067B.

AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar traded lower during the past couple of weeks against the US dollar and tested the 0.7600-0.7700 support area. There is a major bearish trend line formed on the weekly chart, which is suggesting that the AUDUSD pair is still under pressure and if it managed to climb from the current levels then it might struggle to break higher. There is one more aspect, as the highlighted trend line is also coinciding with the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.8794 high to 0.7620 low.

Intraday Support Level – 0.7760

Intraday Resistance Level – 0.7890

  • Overall, as long as the pair is below the stated trend line it might continue trading lower.

  • A break below the same could take the pair towards the 0.80 level.

If the AUDUSD pair moves lower, then initial support is around the 0.7700 level. A break below the same might set the pair for a test of the 0.7620 swing area. The weekly RSI is around the 30 level, which can be considered as a short-term warning sign.

GOLD

GOLD suffered heavy losses during the past several weeks after testing the $1300 resistance area. GOLD buyers failed to take it higher and since then it has moved lower. The 100-week moving average also acted as a catalyst for GOLD which protected upside. It is now heading back towards a broken bearish trend line on the weekly chart. Yesterday, GOLD sellers managed to clear the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the $1131 low to $1306 high, which is a worrying sign in the near term. More losses are possible if sellers gain control.

Intraday Support Level – $1205

Intraday Resistance Level – $1220

  • Selling rallies around the $1220-30 levels line look like a good option.

  • A break above the same might call for more gains moving ahead.

On the downside, the highlighted trend line might act as a support for GOLD moving ahead.

Ben Myers

Ben Myers

Success = few pips, thousand times

Ben Myers is one of the most respected and trusted names in the financial trading industry. Following a long and successful career with HSBC, Bank of Ireland and running his own investment firm

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