US Dollar At A Critical Juncture

US Dollar At A Critical Juncture

By: Darryl Frankfort | Where To Trade | On:22-04-2015 10:25
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Key Highlights

  • US dollar index traded mixed against a basket of currencies with spikes higher and lower, but it remains at risk of a major reversal as the US dollar index is testing an important resistance in the short term.

  • Japanese Merchandise Trade Balance Total released by the Ministry of Finance registered a surplus of ¥229.3B in March 2015, compared to the expectation of a ¥50.0B trade surplus.

  • Japanese Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance i.e. a seasonal measure of balance amount between import and export came registered no change at ¥0B in March 2015, compared to last ¥-573.2B.

  • Japanese imports and exports came in at -14.5% and 8.5% respectively in March 2015.

  • Australian Westpac Leading Index which measures the economic activity, including share prices and telephone installations released by the Melbourne Institute came in at -0.3% in March 2015.

  • Australian Consumer Price Index i.e. a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services released by the RBA and republished by the Australian Bureau of Statistics posted an increase of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2015.

  • In terms of the yearly change, the Australian Consumer Price Index posted a rise of 1.3%.

USDCHF

The US dollar after declining sharply against the Swiss franc towards the 0.9500 support area managed to trade back higher. There was a bearish trend line formed on the 4-hour chart of the USDCHF pair, which was breached by buyers. However, the USDCHF pair was seen struggling around the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.9860 low to 0.9493 low. Moreover, the 100 simple moving average on the 4 hour chart was also just above the mentioned fib level. The pair is currently moving lower and retesting the broken trend line.

Intraday Support Level – 0.9500

Intraday Resistance Level – 0.9610

  • Overall, as long as the pair is below the 100 SMA (4H) it might continue moving lower.

  • A break above the same could ignite more gains in the short term.

If USDCHF fails to move higher and trades back lower, the last swing low around 0.9500 might be seen as a support for the pair.

GBPUSD

There British pound recently traded close to the 1.5050 level against the US dollar, where sellers successfully defended upside in the short term. The GBPUSD pair corrected lower, and found support around an important bullish trend line on the 4-hour chart. The most important point was the fact that the 200 simple moving average was also around the same trend line which helped buyers to contain the losses. Moreover, the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.4565 low to 1.5050 high was also around the 200 SMA.

Intraday Support Level – 1.4880

Intraday Resistance Level – 1.50

  • Buying dips around the 200 SMA (4H) looks like a good option.

  • A break below the same might call for more losses.

On the upside, the 1.50 level remain a critical area for the GBPUSD pair for more upsides.

Yen Looks Set For More Losses

Yen Looks Set For More Losses

By: Simon Furman | Where To Trade | On:01-05-2015 11:16

Japanese yen tumbled against most currencies including the Euro and the US dollar, and it looks like it might continue to head lower in the near term.

AUDUSD Remains Buy On Dips

AUDUSD Remains Buy On Dips

By: Ben Myers | Where To Trade | On:30-04-2015 11:13

Aussie dollar was one of the best performing currencies as it traded higher against most major currencies, and looks set for more gains in the short term.

USDCHF At Risk Of A Major Break

USDCHF At Risk Of A Major Break

By: Darryl Frankfort | Where To Trade | On:29-04-2015 11:09

US dollar dived sharply against the Swiss franc and other major currencies, as sellers managed to gain strength exposing a major break in the USDCHF pair in the near term.

US Dollar Poised For Further Rise Versus Yen

US Dollar Poised For Further Rise Versus Yen

By: James Ansher | Where To Trade | On:28-04-2015 10:58

Japanese yen once again failed to hold the ground and lost all the gains against currencies like the US Dollar and the Euro, which exposes it for more declines in the near future.

NZDUSD Gains Favored As It Holds Key Lows

NZDUSD Gains Favored As It Holds Key Lows

By: Oliver Miller | Where To Trade | On:27-04-2015 10:50

New Zealand dollar traded lower this past week after solid gains against the US dollar, but found support around and important area which means there is a chance of recovery in the near term.

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