US dollar index traded mixed against a basket of currencies with spikes higher and lower, but it remains at risk of a major reversal as the US dollar index is testing an important resistance in the short term.
Japanese Merchandise Trade Balance Total released by the Ministry of Finance registered a surplus of ¥229.3B in March 2015, compared to the expectation of a ¥50.0B trade surplus.
Japanese Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance i.e. a seasonal measure of balance amount between import and export came registered no change at ¥0B in March 2015, compared to last ¥-573.2B.
Japanese imports and exports came in at -14.5% and 8.5% respectively in March 2015.
Australian Westpac Leading Index which measures the economic activity, including share prices and telephone installations released by the Melbourne Institute came in at -0.3% in March 2015.
Australian Consumer Price Index i.e. a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services released by the RBA and republished by the Australian Bureau of Statistics posted an increase of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2015.
In terms of the yearly change, the Australian Consumer Price Index posted a rise of 1.3%.
The US dollar after declining sharply against the Swiss franc towards the 0.9500 support area managed to trade back higher. There was a bearish trend line formed on the 4-hour chart of the USDCHF pair, which was breached by buyers. However, the USDCHF pair was seen struggling around the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.9860 low to 0.9493 low. Moreover, the 100 simple moving average on the 4 hour chart was also just above the mentioned fib level. The pair is currently moving lower and retesting the broken trend line.
Intraday Support Level – 0.9500
Intraday Resistance Level – 0.9610
Overall, as long as the pair is below the 100 SMA (4H) it might continue moving lower.
A break above the same could ignite more gains in the short term.
If USDCHF fails to move higher and trades back lower, the last swing low around 0.9500 might be seen as a support for the pair.
There British pound recently traded close to the 1.5050 level against the US dollar, where sellers successfully defended upside in the short term. The GBPUSD pair corrected lower, and found support around an important bullish trend line on the 4-hour chart. The most important point was the fact that the 200 simple moving average was also around the same trend line which helped buyers to contain the losses. Moreover, the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.4565 low to 1.5050 high was also around the 200 SMA.
Intraday Support Level – 1.4880
Intraday Resistance Level – 1.50
Buying dips around the 200 SMA (4H) looks like a good option.
A break below the same might call for more losses.
On the upside, the 1.50 level remain a critical area for the GBPUSD pair for more upsides.
New Zealand dollar traded lower this past week after solid gains against the US dollar, but found support around and important area which means there is a chance of recovery in the near term.
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