US Dollar Poised For Further Rise Versus Yen

Key Highlights

• Japanese yen once again failed to hold the ground and lost all the gains against currencies like the US Dollar and the Euro, which exposes it for more declines in the near future.

• RBA Governor Glenn Stevens spoke earlier during the Asian session, but the Aussie dollar was not affected that much and still remains at risk of a break lower in the near term.

• Japanese Retail Trade representing the aggregate sales made through a business location and encompasses the sale of merchandise released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry managed to post a reading of -1.9% in March 2015, compared to the last reading of -2.2%.

• Considering the monthly change, the Japanese Retail Trade registered a reading of -9.7% in March 2015, compared to the same month a year ago and expectation was of a 7.3% decline.

• Japanese Large Retailers' Sales, which helps in measuring the total value of goods sold in large stores, chain convenience stores, and supermarkets released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry came in at -13% in March 2015, compared to the last reading of 1.3%.

• US Consumer Confidence is major risk event lined up today, which is forecasted to increase to 102.5.

EURGBP

The Euro after trading lower towards the 0.7115 level against the British Pound managed to trade higher in the near term. However, the correction was stalled around a bearish trend line on the 4-hour chart of the EURGBP pair. Moreover, the upside was stalled around the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7377 high to 0.7115 low. Moreover, the 100 and 200 simple moving averages are aligned with the 50% fib retracement level, which can be considered as an important pivot level. If the EURGBP pair breaks the highlighted trend line, then a move towards the 200 SMA is possible.

Intraday Support Level – 0.7115

Intraday Resistance Level – 0.7200

• Overall, as long as the pair is below the highlighted trend line it might continue moving higher.

• A break above the same could ignite more gains in the short term.

On the downside, the last low of 0.7115 might play an important role for more losses moving ahead.

GBPCHF

The British Pound continued to trade higher towards the 1.4600 level against the Swiss Franc, but failed to trade higher above it. It later dived and tested the 1.4350 level and found support around the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.4193 low to 1.4604 high. One good thing is that the GBPCHF pair traded above the 200 simple moving average on the 4-hour chart. It looks like the pair is heading towards the last high.

Intraday Support Level – 1.4440

Intraday Resistance Level – 1.4600

• Buying dips around the 200 SMA looks like a good option.

• A break below the same might call for more losses.

If the GBPCHF pair climbs towards the last high of 1.4600, then it would be interesting to see how sellers would react.

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