Yen to Move Lower Against US Dollar

Yen to Move Lower Against US Dollar

By: Simon Furman | Where To Trade | On:10-04-2015 17:14
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Key Highlights

  • Japanese yen traded in mixed fashion, as it was seen trading higher against the Euro but at the same time it was seen trading lower against the US dollar.

  • Japanese Money Supply M2+CD, which encompasses all the JPY in circulation, encompassing notes and coins as well as money held in bank accounts released by the Bank of Japan will be released for March.

  • Japanese Bank lending representing the value of all outstanding loans with Japanese banks released by Bank of Japan posted a reading of 2.6% in March 2015, compared to same month a year ago.

  • Chinese Consumer Price Index i.e. a measure of retail price variations within a representative basket of goods and services released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China registered a rise of 1.4% in March 2015, compared to the same month a year ago and the last reading was of 1.4%.

  • In terms of the monthly change, the Chinese CPI posted a reading of -0.5% in March 2015, compared to the forecast of -0.6% and the last time it was increased by 1.2%.

  • Chinese Producer Price Index, which is a measurement of the rate of inflation experienced by producers posted a decline of -4.6% in March 2015, compared to same month a year ago.

  • Australian Home Loans released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics posted a reading of 1.2%.

USDJPY

The US dollar traded lower initially this week against the Japanese yen and tested the 119.00 level, but there was a sharp reaction noted around the mentioned level. The USDJPY pair blasted higher one more time, and gained momentum. It broke an important bearish trend line on the 4-hour chart of the USDJPY pair, which has increased the chances of more gains in the near term. Currently, the pair is consolidating around the 100 and 200 simple moving averages, which presents us an opportunity to buy USDJPY. A break above the 120.40 level might ignite more gains in the short term.

Intraday Support Level – 119.60

Intraday Resistance Level – 120.40

  • Overall, as long as the pair is above the 100 SMA it might continue trading higher.

  • A break below the same could ignite more losses moving ahead.

If the USDJPY pair moves lower from the current levels, then the 100 SMA (4H) could be tested again.

EURJPY

The Euro was one of the worst performers against the Japanese yen as it was seen trading lower. It also breached a critical support trend line on the 4-hour chart to clear the way for more losses in the near term. The most bearish sign to note is the fact that the pair is trading below the 100 and 200 simple moving averages.

Intraday Support Level – 128.50

Intraday Resistance Level – 129.40

  • Selling rallies around the 100 SMA (4H) looks like a good option.

  • A break above the same might call for more gains moving ahead.

If the EURJPY pair moves lower, then a break below the 61.8% fib level of the last leg at 128.70 could ignite a sharp decline moving ahead.

Simon Furman

Simon Furman

Think Global - Act Local

Simon Furman is one of the best financial analyst with 27 years of trading experience

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